SAN JOSE, CA – A projected increase in Internet users, devices, machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, average broadband speed advances, and video viewing will serve to drive up global Internet Protocol (IP) traffic three-fold over the next five years, says a new report from Cisco.
According to the Cisco Complete Visual Networking Index Forecast for 2016 to 2021, global IP traffic is expected to reach an annual run rate of 3.3 zettabytes by 2021, up from an annual run rate of 1.2 zettabytes in 2016.
For the first time in the 12 years of the forecast, M2M connections that support Internet of Things (IoT) applications are calculated to be more than half of the total 27.1 billion devices and connections and will account for five percent of global IP traffic by 2021. IoT innovations in connected home, connected healthcare, smart cars/transportation and a host of other next-generation M2M services are driving this incremental growth – a 2.4-fold increase from 5.8 billion in 2016 to 13.7 billion by 2021. With the rise of connected applications such as health monitors, medicine dispensers, and first-responder connectivity, the health vertical will be fastest-growing industry segment (30% CAGR). The connected car and connected cities applications will have the second-fastest growth (29% CAGRs respectively).
Video will continue to dominate IP traffic and overall Internet traffic growth, representing 80% of all Internet traffic by 2021, up from 67% in 2016. Globally, there will be nearly 1.9 billion Internet video users (excluding mobile-only) by 2021, up from 1.4 billion in 2016. The world will reach three trillion Internet video minutes per month by 2021, which is five million years of video per month, or about one million video minutes every second, continues the report.
Emerging mediums such as live Internet video will increase 15-fold and reach 13% of Internet video traffic by 2021, meaning more streaming of TV apps and personal live streaming on social networks. While live streaming video is reshaping today’s online entertainment patterns, virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are also gaining traction. By 2021, VR/AR traffic will increase 20-fold and represent one percent of global entertainment traffic.
Key Canadian findings from the report include:
– In Canada, IP traffic will grow 2-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 19%;
– In Canada, Internet traffic will grow 2.7-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 22%. Busy hour Internet traffic will grow 3.8-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 30%;
– Canada's Fixed/Wi-Fi was 38% of total IP traffic in 2016, and will be 44% of total IP traffic in 2021, while Fixed/Wired was 59% of total IP traffic in 2016, and will dip to 51% of total IP traffic in 2021. Canada's Mobile was 2% of total IP traffic in 2016, and will be 4% of total IP traffic in 2021;
– Canada's Fixed/Wi-Fi was 52.1% of total Internet traffic in 2016, and will be 54.1% of total Internet traffic in 2021, while Fixed/Wired was 45% of total Internet traffic in 2016, and will decrease to 40% of total Internet traffic in 2021. Canada's Mobile was 2.9% of total Internet traffic in 2016, and will be 5.6% of total Internet traffic in 2021;
– In Canada, IP video will be 78% of all IP traffic in 2021, up from 74% in 2016;
– In Canada, Internet video traffic will grow 3-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 24%;
– In Canada, Internet gaming traffic will grow 7-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 47%;
– In Canada, there will be 405.2 million networked devices in 2021, up from 230.0 million in 2016. Some 20% of all networked devices will be mobile-connected in 2021. M2M modules will account for 67% (271.4 million) of all networked devices in 2021, compared to 50% (115.5 million) in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 18.6%;
– In Canada, the average fixed broadband speed will grow 2.6-fold from 2016 to 2021, from 25.9 Mbps to 66.6 Mbps. The average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will grow 2.2-fold from 2016 to 2021, from 21.8 Mbps to 47 Mbps, and the average mobile connection speed will grow 2-fold from 2016 to 2021, reaching 36 Mbps in 2021.
– In Canada, the average Internet user will generate 102.6 Gigabytes of Internet traffic per month in 2021, up 144% from 42.1 Gigabytes per month in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 19%.
