IS CTV DESTINED FOR TOTAL Canadian television domination? Ratings currently available for the season-to-date, measuring from the first week of September, can be spun to suggest almost anything. But depending how the analysis is done, Canada’s largest broadcaster can surface with up to 15 of the top 20 programs.
It’s hard to compare the varying ratings analyses from CTV and Global since they seldom focus on similar markets, dates and demographics. But an opening gambit might be to see how the reality is playing out compared with certain predictions from the upfront market.
Back in the summer, media buyer Dennis Dinga of Toronto’s M2 Universal told cartt.ca: “The way things netted out last year, CTV had 16 or 17 of the top programs. Global had the rest.” Based on what the competitors each acquired in L.A., he added, CTV would remain solidly number one. Could Global make gains? “There’s no way they can take one little nip out of CTV,” he concluded.
Seven-plus weeks into the fall, he says Global may have one more show in the Top 20, but in order to post notable gains, “it would have to buy better programming.”
Dinga also dismisses CHUM and CBC’s chances to make more noise in the top-ranked club, even though Hockey Night in Canada is back and his analysis says it averaged more than 800,000 viewers among 25-54-year-olds over its first two Saturdays. CHUM tapped into this year’s sci-fi trend with Supernatural and surprised everyone by nabbing Everybody Hates Chris, complete with satirical Chris Rock interjections, but remains, says Dinga, “far down in the Top 20.”
Still, Global is making progress, at least in the 25-54 demo. On a national basis over the first week of September through mid-October, M2 shows Global with five Top 20s – Survivor, The Apprentice, House, the hot rookie Prison Break and The Simpsons – up one from this time last year, and CTV with 13. M2 says Survivor, the lone Global entrant in the Top 10, is number one, followed by Desperate Housewives.
According to national BBM figures from CTV in a marathon, 11-page release and specifically in a chart covering Sept. 19 to Oct. 9, 2005, also for the 25-54 demo, “CTV shows comprise eight of the Top 10 and 13 of the Top 20.” The chart shows Global with two Top 10s, Survivor and The Apprentice, but names CSI on top with Survivor second. CTV’s other Top 10s are Desperate Housewives, CSI: Miami, The Amazing Race, ER, Lost, Law & Order: SVU and Medium.
Rick Lewchuk, CTV’s senior vice-president, program planning and promotion, is happy so far, but says it’s mainly about bench strength. “What we saw in May when we went to L.A. was a lot of good shows, but nothing that was spectacular. There were no Desperate Housewives or Losts (last season’s breakout hits). There are no new shows breaking into the Top 10.”
Meantime, Lewchuk says, the sophomores are crowding the luxury boxes. Along with the housewives and the lost, he says the docs on Grey’s Anatomy and the psychics on Medium conjured “the biggest numbers” CTV’s Sunday shows have had in years, with Grey pulling 1.9 million at 10 p.m. and Medium close behind. Even Canadian teener Degrassi: The Next Generation “finally broke that magic million mark” recently.
But none of CTV’s competitors is bowing out. Barbara Williams, Global’s senior vice-president, programming and production, says, “It’s been a great fall. We’re quite pleased with how things are rolling out….You buy a whole bunch of new programming and see how it does.
“Prison Break,” she adds, “is the number one new show across Canada for 18-49….The War at Home is a great new comedy. My Name is Earl is growing and doing quite well in Canada and the U.S. And Survivor yet again has the number one spot (based on BBMs). We’re delighted with The Simpsons. It’s still the number one comedy for adults. We also have big pick-up for House – 160% higher than it was last fall.
“We already are making progress against CTV. They’re a powerful broadcaster and they won’t give up easily, but we’re gaining.”
Williams notes schedule stability this year. She’s only heard of cancellations for Global’s Head Cases, one of 17 new shows, and CTV’s Inconceivable, one of four rookies.
Perhaps the sequestering of lighter reality shows in the summer – except Survivor and Amazing Race – and the renaissance of scripted dramas has contributed to that stability; Lewchuk says CTV bought enough dramas to put three hour-longs “on the shelf” and is waiting to see which climbs off first. Commander in Chief has made a few headlines, but he says it’s not breaking into the starting line-up yet.
At CBC, René Bertrand is executive director, media sales. Trying to “make noise against CTV” is not his goal, he says, because CBC appeals to different viewers. “We have a lower share of audience but we have a unique environment… less duplication. The type of people who would watch The National and the fifth estate are not the people who would watch Desperate Housewives. Ours are the upper end decision-makers.”
That’s all very well, but CBC’s Samson bench strength is in hockey and as everyone not passed out under a putrid hockey bag knows, it’s back and it’s big. Bertrand says Hockey Night In Canada’s season-to-date average audience surpassed 2.8 million for both games, with 82% more viewers for the second game, compared with 2003-04.
Meanwhile, CBC has more sports excitement: it’s scheduled its debut HD cast for HNIC for game one, November 5. It will also have the Grey Cup November 27. “We beat the Super Bowl with the Grey Cup,” he says.
(If sports is a CBC boon, it’s a Global bane for now. Fox pre-empted new episodes of House and Prison Break but with a four-game sweep by the Chicago White Sox last night, that’s not a worry any more. Re-runs in those slots might also encourage defections to an exciting fall classic. On the other side of the plate, Prison Break returned October 24 for the first new episode since early this month and, according to Global, won the night in Vancouver and Toronto and caught 1.4 million national viewers.)
In drama, the Corp. has been pushing “Big Ticket” minis and movies including Trudeau, the Prequel, October 24-5, The Walter Gretzky Story November 6, and Shania, the movie the next day. This Hour has 22 Minutes and Air Farce, both returning on the 28th (delayed by the lockout), have hired some new comedians and Rick Mercer’s Report is back October 28.
Bertrand says sales are on target for fall and dramas such as Da Vinci’s City Hall and This is Wonderland will have staggered starts, October 25 and November 23 respectively, to avoid facing off against U.S. superpowers. Bertrand says senior management wants drama ratings to compete with the big shows, just the same.
CTV is strong, with “all the top American shows, but who are they hurting? Global mostly. I will never tell you that I can deliver the audience of Desperate Housewives,” he says, “but I’m not selling that audience….Because of our type of programming, it’s not mass, it’s more targeted. If you’ve got a Toyota Prius (a hybrid) and you want to advertise, you position it on David Suzuki (Nature of Things) because he’s environmentally friendly.”
CHUM’s Roma Khanna, wh
o became senior vice-president, content, just weeks before the 2005 upfront, sees this year’s acquisition of such mainstream programs as Everybody Hates Chris and Supernatural as “a real change for CHUM. There was huge buzz around Chris. The demographics are really in line with the CHUM approach to things, but it has that Chris Rock edge” that also complements the broadcaster’s style.
While these shows are doing well – Dinga says Supernatural has almost doubled its expected audience of 78,000 in Ontario – and CHUM impressed buyers with its schedule reorganization, it’s hardly a threat to CTV and Global. But Khanna says that’s not the plan. “It’s not a matter of having all the Top 20 shows. We just want the ones that are right for us.”
At the same time, she adds, “CHUM wants to be seen to be a player in the group of private broadcasters. But CHUM is separate in skewing younger and more edgy and off the beaten track. Those are the values that came with Citytv. We’re building strength one show at a time, one night at a time.”
Other strong programs, Khanna says, include America’s Next Top Model, Supernanny, Hot Properties and Hope And Faith.
Is CTV unstoppable? Well, these things are usually cyclical, but CTV has been atop the cycle for quite some time now. Its competitors have their work cut out.
Susan Tolusso is a freelance writer based in Ottawa.
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