WITH THE FEDERAL ELECTION done, Canadians can go back to really important matters: will the Montreal Canadian make the playoffs.
In all seriousness, we know the Liberals will be forming the next government but from a minority standpoint. This means they will need the support (or the abstention) of only one of the Bloc Quebecois or NDP, but not both. So, there’s a little room to manoeuvre. Both of those parties are reported to be utterly broke, so they will have little interest to drive everyone back to the polls for now.
The ideological positioning of those parties looks to bring the government to the left, leaving the Conservatives alone on the right. Speaking of the Conservatives, because he won the most votes and gained 21 seats, Andrew Sheer should be able to stay. There will be grumbling since it’s in the Conservatives’ DNA, but he should hang on. There will be a review vote in April.
Timelines
Liberals have already indicated the new cabinet will be sworn in on November 20 and the Speech from the Throne (SFT) should be read a few weeks later. Back in 2015, the election was held on October 19, cabinet was sworn in on November 4 and the SFT was given December 3.
To govern, the Liberals must obtain the confidence of the House in a vote after the SFT debate and to get enough votes, the PM is holding talks with party leaders to find files which will ensure support from either the Bloc or the NDP. These parties will be able to force some compromise.
After the votes on the SFT, the House will rise for the Christmas break.
In January, the extremely important CRTC Wireless Review hearing will begin January 13 and then the Broadcasting and Telecommunications Legislative Review (BTLR) panel is tasked to deliver its final report and recommendations by January 31, 2020.
Cabinet
Ralph Goodale (Public Safety) and Amarjeet Sohi (Natural Resources) were defeated and Dominic Leblanc (Fisheries and Oceans) has health problems which will prevent him from sitting in cabinet. There will be change in atop the ministries.
Ministers of Canadian Heritage and ISED, Pablo Rodriguez and Navdeep Bains have been re-elected, but we expect Navdeep Bains, who was a Liberal campaign co-chair who helped drive Liberal successes in Ontario, to get a promotion. Finance and Foreign Affairs are not likely available (if there is a change, FA minister Chrystia Freeland might go to Finance and Morneau to Foreign Affairs). One possibility is the Public Safety portfolio, where the Prime Minister needs reliable and trustworthy and Bains, a personal friend of the PM, fits that bill.
Speculation on his possible replacement abound and no consensus has emerged yet. Of note, the new Deputy Minister (started on September 3) Simon Kennedy, is well regarded.
Heritage Minister Rodriguez may well like a change but having just been appointed [July 2018] he is likely to stay where is, for now.
A key position in the next government will be Government House Leader, as legislation, even if routine, will have to be negotiated as opposed to the previous four years when it could be imposed. Bains would be good in that role, too.
Some would like to see the re-creation of the Department of Communications, and it would make sense, but it’s not likely to happen at this juncture.
Issues
Two key votes will be the SFT and the Budget in February/March 2020. The SFT provides a mile-high perspective while budget would show implementation. Failure to pass those two crucial steps could make the government fall. That might not be in the best interest of the financially depleted parties. So that gives the Liberals some wiggle room.
In the files we care about, we are likely to see, for example, a mention of a fairer contribution to Canadian culture funding from the web giants in the SFT and the inclusion of that in the Budget.
We do not expect the government to act quickly on the BTLR proposals, whatever they may be, because changes there may well drive controversy with no consensus..
For the next two to three years, the motto will be for ministers: Do not rock the boat unless it is necessary.
Therefore, an amendment to the Telecom Act on passive infrastructure is unlikely because it will displease the municipalities. If you upset mayors on top of premiers, it is not good politics. Remember, the next few months will be a prelude to the next election where the Liberal will vie to regain the 13 seats they need to form a majority.
Wireless
The new minister of Public Safety will have to make a decision on the Huawei file. Choosing between Trump and Xi Jinping is not appealing. They are likely study that one some more.
An emerging issue could surprise and that’s on the health risks of 5G deployment. Various spectrum frequencies, proximity and ubiquity will possibly worry some and the government might have to rethink or delay their spectrum policy.
Finally, what will they do about reducing wireless rates by 25% as Justin Trudeau promised?
Scotiabank telecom and media analyst Jeff Fan said in a note to investors this week “the Liberals promised to lower wireless bills by 25%, but we do not think tabling legislation on wireless pricing [something the NDP would probably support] will be their approach,” and “on wireless resale/MVNO, we think the Liberals will (and should) let the CRTC's current proceedings play out, perhaps with less political noise.”
This Government will have its hands full and will have to focus on more important files like environment, pipelines and just plain surviving, so we expect telecommunications and broadcasting to be less “top of mind.” Look for the new minority government to deal with low-hanging fruit and not engage in complicated files for the time being.
That said, Rogers Communications CEO Joe Natale seems an optimist about all of this. “There is the potential of a new minister of Industry,” he said. “There is a new deputy in charge of the Industry portfolio so we have an opportunity to sit down with people and just work through and talk about how we built such a great network capability in Canada and why perpetuating that capability into the future, especially around the digital economy and 5G, is fundamentally very important, so we’re feeling good about things overall on that front.”
